If you look through UK political commentary these days, you’ll struggle to go far without coming across one person or another talking about the rise of Reform UK. The far-right party, newly led by Nigel Farage, is the latest incarnation of the same anti-EU, anti-migration, climate-sceptic party that has wormed its way through British politics since the 90s. Yet it has once again shot up in the public consciousness, capitalising on the weakness of today’s Conservative Party and bolstered by Farage’s personal popularity among the most right-wing section of the British electorate. Current polls suggest that Reform could overtake the Tories in terms of vote share, or at least come very close to doing so.
This development has provoked two main reactions. One is a varied mixture of awe, amusement or incredulity. It is focused on the short-term potential for the Conservatives to suffer a historic election defeat as a strong Reform party, a very strong Labour party and dire Tory polling create a perfect storm that could wreck the Tory ship.
The other reaction is more circumspect, more concerned. Without any necessary love for the Tory party, this response worries about a future Britain where Faragism is not just a strong force on the right but perhaps the dominant or only real right-of-centre politics available. It would be a political force that would equivocate on confronting Russia, would seek to rupture what remaining friendships we have with our neighbours, would court other extremists like Marine Le Pen or Viktor Orban and which would be enamoured of the same kind of economic illiteracy that Britain already endured under Liz Truss. And given the workings of Britain’s voting system, should we not fear that it will only be a matter of time before voters tire of Labour and decide to move back to the right, inevitably one day handing power over to this final evolution of Farage’s political animal?
Perhaps that course of events may unfold, but there are good reasons to think they will not. While Reform presents a severe, perhaps mortal threat, to the Conservative party, it is not obvious that they can follow through and become the natural governing party of the British right.
For one thing, our electoral system could present itself as a more of a constraint than a leg-up for Reform. Pollsters certainly show that the far-right group could get somewhere around 15-20% of the vote, a major achievement for a small party, but they also show Farage’s outfit getting well below 10 seats in Parliament. This is not a point that can be ignored. If Reform are unable to secure seats, even with a significant number of votes, then voters will recognise that their vote is not being heard. While Tory arguments that a vote for Reform helps a Labour victory are not being heard today, that does not mean that right-of-centre voters will be deaf to that argument forever.
Alternatively, the Tories could well be displaced, but by another party altogether: the Liberal Democrats. Again, because of the distortions of our electoral system, the simple vote shares do not tell the whole story. Even though Reform are snapping at the Tories’ heels to take second place in the polls, it is not Reform who threaten to take the title of Official Opposition to an incoming Labour government, but the Lib Dems. And if they do take on second place in terms of seats, then it is far from outlandish to imagine that the Lib Dems will, during the course of a Starmer premiership, position themselves more on the centre-right, drawing in more disaffected liberal Tories and so reconstructing a moderate, credible opposition. Even voters further to the right would likely eventually opt for the party closer to their views (as further left voters sometimes do with Labour), while the lump of right-wing radicals languish in the repeated failures of Reform.
What comes through from imagining these future scenarios is the conclusion that Reform would not be able to break past its current glass ceiling and assemble a much broader coalition of voters on the right. This is an entirely reasonable assumption when we look at the public’s view of Reform’s leading star, Nigel Farage.
The wall-to-wall media coverage of Farage, his hold on the Tory party’s consciousness and the quick jump in Reform’s support when he took over as leader would all suggest a man gifted with charisma and the power to persuade. Yet in truth he has little of either and his star dynamism among the most right-wing parts of British society only overshadow the aversion that he generates from the much broader part of the public. In YouGov’s April poll, Farage had a net favourability of -37. That puts him above Sunak (-47), but below Starmer (-20) or Angela Rayner (-19). He possesses less the public enthusiasm of a fresh alternative and more the weary weight of a failing Prime Minister. Whatever else might be true of Farage, perhaps the most damning aspect for his chances of political success is that most people don’t like him.
To close out and perhaps underline the whole argument, it’s worth coming back to the constant reference point of this election: Canada ’93. When the Canadian Conservatives were wiped out in that fateful election, there can be little doubt that Reform (Canada) fully took over as the main party on the right. They didn’t just win out in terms of vote share, they had 50 seats more than the old Progressive Conservative Party (out of a total of only 295 seats available). In the next election, Reform (Canada) gained a few seats but lost, still far behind the Liberal Party. In the election after that, they allied with a few of the provincial Conservative parties and gained a handful of extra seats, but ultimately lost again. Reform (Canada) fully merged with the old Progressive Conservative party, forming the new (and current) Conservative Party of Canada, for the 2004 election. They lost again.
It wasn’t until 2006 that any right-wing party was able to win a general election in Canada. To do so, they had to go through an agonising, drawn-out restructuring and reformation. Crucially, by no means could we say that a radical right party was simply gifted the keys to power through lack of alternative.
Nigel Farage and Reform are capturing the headlines and the pundits, but we are far from the point where we need to fear that they will represent the essence of the British right or have a pathway to government. While their support may be intense, it is also narrow and the party remains polarising. Reform are undoubtedly a danger to the Tories, but not yet to Britain.