Europe is a paradox, both old and new. Many of its constituent nations and regions have been around for hundreds or even thousands of years. These nations may have even had moments of great power and prosperity on the global stage but are today running at a slower pace. Europe is, to much of the world, the Old Continent.
Yet Europe is also something fresh and dynamic, a relatively new arrival on the global stage. Through the project of European unity, Europe finds new life and ambition born out of old foundations.
On notable point about this phenomenon is that growth tends to come in fits and spurts. The initial founding of the EU, known originally as the European Coal and Steel Community, counted just six members. Ireland, the UK and Denmark joined in the 1970s, followed by Greece, Spain and Portugal in the 1980s, Sweden, Finland and Austria in the 1990s and then the big jump in membership in the 2000s.
In the 1990s Europe also witnessed the creation of the Schengen borderless zone, itself expanded through three main waves, and the 2000s marked the arrival of the euro, whose members were mostly there from the start, with new members mostly joining around the end of that decade.
Then in the 2010s things stalled. Lichtenstein joined the Schengen Area in 2011 and Croatia joined the EU in 2013 but for the rest of this time there was no progress. Only the eurozone saw a bit more growth, with new members in 2011, 2014 and 2015 (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania respectively).
This was a decade of crisis and as much as the drive for European unity has continued to bring benefits, no one wanted to take any risks.
At the end of 2022, it has given us a Europe that looks something like this:
Yet the ambition of European unity is not done. Calls to move forward have been galvanised by Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian invasion and their desire to be recognised as a part of the European family. Where before crisis begat caution, today it demands action as the new geopolitical context requires Europe to reinforce its internal links of solidarity, to more widely distribute the benefits of integration and to consolidate its position along the border with an aggressive power.
It seems likely that we are now on the cusp of another wave of growth as Europe takes more steps towards the unity of all our nations. Perhaps by the end of this decade and more likely by the end of the next one, we could have a Europe that looks like this:
Or even like this, if we add in the potential for the UK to rejoin the EU:
These maps are not my personal predictions of the future - they rely on general assumptions about the future trajectories of countries that are currently trying to join the EU/euro/Schengen. And there are obvious caveats that jump out (e.g. Serbia likely can’t join without resolving its dispute with Kosovo, meaning the prospect of these two are linked).
But they do show two interesting things. First, a significant expansion in the next one to two decades is entirely possible. It would bring about significant new economic opportunities for Europe as market integration developed further and further elevate the EU as one of the world superpowers in terms of both economic value and raw population size.
Second, and much more importantly, the edges of European expansion are closer than many people probably assume. By the logic presented above, the unity of Europe’s nations - a more or less continuous political, cultural and economic space from the Altantic Ocean to the Russian border - is almost around the corner. Horizontal integration, the bringing in of new members to the European community, will become impossible on any major scale, with only a few small countries potentially still on the outside. For Europeans, this has the potential to be a revolution in our understanding of ourselves and our relation to each other as the concept of ‘Europe’ takes a decisive shift from something aspirational to something concrete. A dream that was put forward in the ashes of the Second World War, to bring together a continent riven by strife into a peaceful union, could actually become a reality.
To put it another way, I’m not only suggesting there may be another big wave of growth for the European community in the near future. I’m also saying it could be the last.