Western weakness is encouraging Putin’s war
Why Europe urgently needs to project strength
Over and over, leaders and politicians in the West have failed to learn the most important lesson of dealing with Putin: he punishes weakness.
Last week, we were treated to yet another episode of this elite educational failure. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stubbornly defended his decision not to transfer long-range missiles to Ukraine. He has always argued that to do so would be to risk ‘escalation’. On Friday, he followed up by calling Putin for the first time in two years and asking him to withdraw troops from Ukraine to allow for an enduring peace.
The absurdity of this sequence of events is almost beyond belief. After doubling down on his mistaken belief that Ukraine should be deprived of essential weaponry in order to push back against Russia’s invasion with force, Scholz then thought that the same goal might be achieved by just asking nicely. At least the likes of Orban or Trump are realistic about their own withdrawal of support for Kyiv: continued occupation of Ukrainian territory. Scholz wants people to believe that he could bring the war to a true peace through the power of oratory alone.
Putin duly rewarded Scholz’s overtures with the signature Russian response. On Sunday morning, a massive wave of Russian missiles and drones was launched across the whole of Ukraine, targeting major civilian centres. Ahead of winter, with snow already on the ground in the country, Putin also went after energy infrastructure, to inflict the most pain possible and make daily life in Ukraine unbearable.
There is no surprise here. For years Putin has been testing the West’s resolve, pushing and prodding to see how far he could go and what he could get away with. Supporting an uprising here, snatching a bit of land there, killing civilians, using illegal weapons. Georgia, Moldova, Syria, Ukraine – a list of crimes ignored and overlooked by Western leaders that thought they could simply talk with Russia and reach a reasonable accord.
And every time that the West has stood by, Putin has taken it as an open invitation to go further. While Putin likes to spin a narrative of a powerful and oppressive Western bloc, threatening Russia at its very borders, the truth is quite the opposite. Putin sees the West as weak, cowardly and divided. He exploits this weakness in order to advance his own dreams of power and conquest.
This is unlikely to be the last time Russia launches a major attack. Sadly the Americans have landed us in a terrible situation with their own signal of critical weakness. In electing Donald Trump, they have told Putin that they have no real tolerance for the cost of conflict, even indirectly, and that they are easily cowed by Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation. Moscow will take Trump’s arrival at the head of the Western military alliance as a sign that they can push harder and with less restraint, without fear that it might lead to an increase in US support for Kyiv.
This would even extend into any unjust ‘peace’ that Trump and his helpers may be able to force upon Ukraine. If Russia is allowed to hold on to all the currently occupied territories and if Ukraine is deprived of effective security guarantees (i.e. the broad strokes of Trump’s planned concessions to Putin), then Moscow will certainly not view this as a settled matter that can be left alone. What we will likely witness instead will be an exact replay of 2014. Back then, Russia also used force to seize Ukraine’s territory and Ukraine was likewise abandoned by Western partners. The Minsk Accords allowed Russia to retain de facto control of the occupied parts of Ukraine while Kyiv itself was not given any help in defending itself from future Russian aggression. If anything, it was pressured into making more concessions to Moscow while any path to NATO or EU membership remained hopelessly distant at best. The consequence of this was that Putin concluded the West was unwilling to defend Ukraine or to resist Russian aggression. He spent the following years carefully building up his forces until he decided the moment was right to escalate and see how much more he could get away with. That is what gave us the 2022 full-scale invasion.
If the Trumps and Orbans across the Western world are allowed to enact their plan and repeat the mistakes of the past, then, sooner or later, the miseries of the present shall be repeated too.
The Polish government is now leading efforts to form a united front in Europe to continue supporting Ukraine. A meeting of key foreign ministers is scheduled and there are also discussions at the level of the leaders. This work will be vital in presenting strength to Putin and creating an effective deterrent to further Russian aggression. To fill the hole left by American weakness will require European strength. It will require large-scale, enduring commitments to supply weaponry and it will require unwavering support for Ukraine’s entry into both the EU and NATO. Importantly, it will require creating a credible alternative to Washington’s looming demands for peace talks. Europe must be willing and able to refuse US proposals for any settlement that leaves Ukraine defenceless and which reward Russian aggression.
Will our leaders deliver on these needs? It is too early to say. So far they have not done enough, but while Ukraine still fights there is still time. We can only hope that now, shocked by the US election, they will finally step up – or step aside.